The Science and Management of Uncertainty

Natural resource decisions are rarely made with complete information. Managers must act while measurements remain imprecise, future conditions are unpredictable, and scientific understanding continues to evolve. In The Science and Management of Uncertainty, research wildlife biologist Bruce G. Marcot tackles that challenge directly, offering a rigorous yet practical framework for working with doubt in environmental decision-making.

Inside the Book

The book moves from conceptual foundations to applied tools across nine chapters.

• What is Uncertainty? Introduces types and sources of uncertainty, key terms, and an epistemological hierarchy of understanding.
• Measuring Uncertainty Covers measurements, estimators, infrequent but intense events, and quick estimation methods.
• Modeling Uncertainty Explores influence diagrams, causal webs, sensitivity analysis, validation, and the limits of models.
• Communicating Uncertainty Examines how probabilities, scientific visualization, and language shape understanding.
• Capturing Expert Judgment Discusses methods for eliciting expert knowledge, assessing reliability, and recognizing biases.
• Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Links structured decision making, adaptive management, and risk analysis.
• Fallacies of Logic and Inference Identifies common reasoning errors that can derail sound conclusions.
• Case Topics Applies concepts to hindcasting, rare events, and Bayesian propagation of uncertainty.
• Summary and Conclusions Draws lessons for the future of unknowing and what comes next for practitioners.

For Researchers, Managers, and Decision-Makers

This book is written for natural resource scientists, researchers, managers, and decision-makers who want to move beyond simply acknowledging uncertainty. It provides conceptual and practical tools for measuring variation, evaluating models, communicating risk, and capturing expert knowledge. Readers with a background in elementary statistics and some exposure to decision science will benefit most, but the clear organization also allows targeted reading by topic.

For anyone working with rare environmental events, contested evidence, or the challenge of explaining complex findings to stakeholders, this book provides a thoughtful guide to making uncertainty a more explicit and manageable part of the decision process.